Pattern Interrupt • ERCOT 2026
Before you renew: the ERCOT curve no one priced in.
Three minutes on the capacity cliff, peak-hour shocks, and why 6–24 month renewals are closing faster than buyers expect.
- Reserve margins invert by 2029—what that does to peak tickets.
- When to lock (6–24 months before expiry) and term bands (24–72 months).
- Fixed vs. index mix for 2026–2028 if summer volatility hits early.
What's inside (kept tight)
- Capacity cliff timing: why reserve margin goes negative.
- Peak-hour pricing triggers—what moves the strip.
- Renewal windows: 6–24 months pre-expiry guidance.
- Terming: 24–72 month bands by risk tolerance.
- Blend: 65–70% fixed baseload, 30–35% indexed flex.
⚠️ ERCOT Reserve Margin Trend
Reserve margins turn negative by 2027. Supply shortage creates extreme peak-hour volatility.