ERCOT Projects Stable Grid Conditions This Winter
According to ERCOT's latest winter assessment released in November 2025, the Texas power grid is expected to remain stable throughout December and January. The grid operator anticipates sufficient generation capacity to meet customer demand even during peak winter usage periods.
Grand Prairie, Texas rates dropped below 0 degrees causing stress to the Texas power grid.
This marks a significant improvement from previous years when uncertainty about grid reliability kept business owners up at night, worrying about potential outages that could disrupt operations and damage equipment.
What Texas Businesses Need to Know
While ERCOT's forecast is encouraging, business owners should still understand the dynamics affecting their electricity costs this winter:
1. Peak Demand Timing
Winter electricity demand typically spikes during morning hours (7-8 AM) when employees arrive and heating systems ramp up, and again in early evening when people return home. During these "higher-risk" periods, less solar power is available, which can create tighter grid conditions.
2. Current Commercial Electricity Rates
As of November 2025, Texas commercial electricity rates average between 6.8 to 9 cents per kWh—significantly lower than the national average of 13.09 cents per kWh. However, rates vary considerably by region and contract structure:
• Oncor service area: averaging 16.23¢ per kWh (with delivery)
• CenterPoint Energy area: averaging 16.67¢ per kWh
• AEP Texas North: averaging 17.98¢ per kWh
3. Winter 2025 Grid Emergency Risk
ERCOT's models show that if a severe winter storm drives demand to levels similar to February's record (80,525 megawatts), there's roughly a 35% chance of grid emergency conditions in December. However, that risk drops to less than 10% in January as additional generation capacity comes online.
How Businesses Can Prepare
Smart Texas business owners aren't just waiting to see what happens—they're taking proactive steps:
Review Your Current Contract
Many businesses are locked into rates negotiated during different market conditions. With wholesale prices showing volatility, now is the time to benchmark your current rate against today's market. Some businesses are finding potential savings of 10-20% simply by reviewing contract terms and timing.
Proactive Texas business professionals planning for reliable energy through winter
Consider Contract Length Strategy
Longer-term contracts (24 to 36 months) are currently offering the most competitive rates. However, the best time to shop for electricity remains spring and fall when seasonal demand pressures ease.
Understand Your Load Profile
Knowing when and how your business uses power can unlock significant savings. Peak usage during off-hours may qualify you for better rate structures that most businesses never explore.
The Bigger Picture: Texas Energy Market in 2025
Texas operates the only independent power grid in the continental United States, creating a unique deregulated electricity market. This competition generally keeps rates lower than the national average, but it also introduces volatility.
Recent data shows wholesale electricity prices in Texas reached record levels in 2021-2023, with averages climbing to $117 per megawatt-hour—the highest in the nation during that period. While wholesale prices have moderated, they're still up approximately 18% year-over-year in early 2025.
For businesses, this means vigilance pays off. The companies thriving in this environment aren't just accepting whatever renewal offer arrives in the mail—they're actively managing electricity as a strategic expense.
What This Means for Your Bottom Line
Electricity often represents a significant operating expense for Texas businesses, particularly in manufacturing, hospitality, retail, and office operations. A typical commercial operation using several thousand kWh per month could see annual electricity costs ranging from $6,000 to over $100,000 depending on size and industry.
Even small percentage improvements in your rate structure can translate to thousands of dollars in annual savings—money that flows directly to your bottom line.
Take Action Now
With ERCOT forecasting grid stability and current market conditions creating opportunities, now is an ideal time for Texas businesses to:
• Audit your current electricity contract and rate
• Compare your rate against current market offerings
• Understand when your contract renews
• Explore whether your usage pattern qualifies for better rate structures
• Consider locking in competitive rates before spring demand increases
The businesses that proactively manage their energy costs—rather than treating electricity as a fixed expense—consistently outperform competitors who simply pay whatever bill arrives.
Conclusion
ERCOT's positive winter forecast provides Texas businesses with confidence that operations can continue without major grid disruptions. However, grid stability doesn't mean you're getting the best possible electricity rate.
In Texas's deregulated energy market, businesses have choices. The question is whether you're taking advantage of them.
If you haven't reviewed your commercial electricity contract in the past year, you could be leaving significant money on the table. With grid conditions stable and competitive market rates available, there's never been a better time to ensure your business is positioned for success.
Need help understanding your current electricity costs or exploring better options? Power Choosers specializes in helping Texas businesses navigate the commercial energy market to find rates that actually make sense for their operations.
